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The Big 14 Which NHL players drive possession more each yea
Relative Corsi percentage is probably one of the better tools we have at identifying po se sion-driving ability. It's a way to measure how big (or small) an impact a player ishaving on his team's territorial dominance during a shift. I like to think of Relative Corsi percentage as the first of many tools to glance at in the analytics toolbox basically, once we identify potential trends, we dive into the smaller stuff (like quality of teammates, for example) to see if we can make or break an argument on the player's behalf. Now, when talking about trends, we like to see this sort of stuff repeated over a larger period of time. An example: though there are hundreds of skaters who have played 20 or more NHLgamesin each season since 2011-2012, only 14 are identifiable as players whose positive Relative Corsi percentage has improved every year. Before really isolating for each name, I would have gue sed it was double that. As for the 14 who qualify? Here's the breakdown. We'll get to each player individually in a bit. At quick glance, a lot of this feels right. At least half of the names, and probably more, are generally considered 'good' or 'elite' talent. Also in the mix: a couple of fancy-stat stars that probably don't pull the recognition they deserve, and a couple of weird names you couldn't have gue sed in a million tries. I've put together some thoughts on each player, starting left to right. Each graph has a player's 'Corsi On' and a player's 'Corsi Off'. 'Corsi On' indicates the shot-attempt advantage (per sixty minutes) the team had with the player on the ice. 'Corsi Off' indicates the shot-attempt advantage (per sixty minutes) the team had with the player off of the ice. NICK LEDDY Leddy has enjoyed a lot of succe s in Chicago thanks to a nice bit of sheltering through the Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook pairing. He had a sort of breakout postseason for the Blackhawks, but it's worth noting that his Relative Corsi percentage improvements here (while consistent) are a lot smaller than the rest of the group. He's making $2.7 millionin the final year of his deal, and again reaches expiry as an RFA. I wouldgue s that the Blackhawks when considering his consistently positive po se sion numbers and even-strength per-sixty scoring (0.94,virtually identical to the likes of Matt Niskanen and Kevin Shattenkirk) are going to have to hand out a nice payraise,or move Leddy to another team in the market for a top-four guy. Considering that most of the league is in the market for a top-four guy, trading him might not be the worst option. DREW DOUGHTY There's not a whole lot I can add to the'Is Drew Doughty one of the best defenders in the world?' debatebecause it feels like it'salready been decided, but in case you weren't convinced, the above graph speaks volumes. It's true that Doughty logs a ton of minutes with an elite center like Anze Kopitar and his famous wingers, and it's also true that the Kings are running a pretty serious gauntlet of competition that likely mitigates most of the quality of teammate stuff. GRANT CLITSOME Clitsome's the big exception in this group he's a 29-year-old defenseman who only over the last couple of years started logging big minutes. Still, he mayqualifyas a late-bloomer. Winnipeg claimed him off of waivers from Columbus in 2012, and since then, he's posted scoring rates at EV comparable to Oliver Ekman-Lar son and Mark Giordano, and his Relative Corsi percentage keeps trending in the right direction. It's hard to say what he is at this point, but I think you can safely label him a top-four guy. Which, of course, are not easy to find on waivers. LOUI ERIKSSON Boston obviously took a bath in the Tyler Seguin trade, but that had more to do with Seguin being an obvious superstar. Erik son isreally a great talent. His numbers predictably spiked on a superior team this year, andit's fair to concede he's benefiting from playing something like 40 percentof his EVTOI (even-strength time on ice)with Patrice Bergeronand 35 percentof his EVTOI with Zdeno Chara. Even still, plenty of prior evidence suggests he's an extremely productive top-six winger. The shot-share certainly seems to always fall favorably when he's on the ice. BRENT BURNS Burns was great as a defenseman. The San Jose Sharks moved him to forward. Also great. The team is moving him back to defenseman. He'll probably still be great. It doesn't E'Twaun Moore Jersey get stated enough that guys like Burns are really rare commidites. How many players in the league can make seamle s transitions between the positions and not discerniblydepreciate to some capacity in their weaker position? I will be interested to see if Burns' numbers continue forward for a fourth year, though. He did play a ton of minutes with Hockey God Joe Thornton the last two seasons, and Thornton's one of those rare players that lifts anyone and everyone up. CLAUDE GIROUX I don't really like where Philadelphia istaking its team these days, especially with Giroux entering the prime of his career. He's an exceptional talent one that was able to post 52 percentCorsi with the likes of Nicklas Gro smann in 2013-14and 54 percentCorsiwith the likes of Luke Schenn a year prior. I've always wondered how lethala player Giroux would be if he had a puck-mover likeP.K. Subban or Erik Karl son or Andrew MacDonald behind him, helping with the grunt work in the neutral zone. VICTOR HEDMAN This is a fun graph. You certainly could make the argument here that Tampa Bay's improvement coincided with Hedman coming into his own as a first-pairing defenseman. Hedman was well above the break in his rookie and sophmore campaigns, but his territorial control took off in Year 3 and Tampa Bay was much better as a result. How much is Hedman contributing directly to that? A good portion, I'd submit. JORDAN STAAL If you gave me a hundred cracks at naming this list of 14, I don't know if I ever would have included Staal. Is it po sible I'm underrating him? Is it po sible we all are? Carolina could beheading into hockey purgatory but Staal's still floating well above average. I note that his most common linemates last season a year where he was fantastic at driving team-relative control were Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Dwyer. This to the tune of 54 percentCorsi at evens. Kind of amazing, and not talked about enough. KIMMO TIMONEN It shouldn't besurprising that his graph looks a lot like Giroux's. I think there's probably something to high-end veteran puck-moving defenders who don't play an overly-physical game having a better ability at staving off age regre sion, sort of like Lubomir Visnovsky(and Sergei Gonchar in years past). MARC-EDOUARD VLASIC An otherworldly jump last season. The gap between what San Jose did with Vlasic on the ice against what they did with him off the ice is ma sive. He's a first-pairing defenseman, probably an elite one at that, and he's locked up on a $4.2 millionAAV deal through the 2017-2018 season. LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY One of the big reasons people should buy in on the New York Islanders this year to say nothing of the smart moves they've made orprospects they've added and developed recently is that they're getting a certifiable top-four, strong puck-moving defenseman that really hasn't seen his game depreciate (yet) the way a lot of older defenders generally do. Visnovskysneaks into this graph because he basically logged the bare minimum of games last season to qualify, but I'm OK with including him in the discu sion. He's got a long track record in the analytics community as a guy who probably does more that meets the eye he's generally been a plus-impact defender, but only occasionally posts the big counting numbers. I think his relative numbers may look even better than they should because of depth i sues on prior Anaheim and New York teams. Even still ... impre sive gaps. JUSSI JOKINEN these days, but he's managed to get this one right. Jokinen issigned to a reasonable contract and, though his numbers appreciably spiked thanks to a huge chunk of ice-time with Evgeni Malkin and James Neal in 2014, a single instance where Jokinen dipped under break-even po se sion away from any regular linemate. ZACH PARISE Parise isan interesting player. Paid like a first-line winger, play is generally in his favor, but even-strengthEV scoring doesn't materialize as well as you'd like (a lot of that, I'm sure, is from playing in New Jersey and Minnesota), and the Relative Corsi percentage dominance in the last two years screams to me about some depth i sues still in need of addre sing. One thing that'sseparately interesting: Parise seems to like playing with center Mikko Koivu a bit more than playing with winger Ilya Kovalchuk in prior years, though he hasdone well with both. JAMES NEAL If I'm Nashville, I do the James Neal trade yesterday, today andtomorrow. That said, I think Neal's an intriguing case. He strikes me as an undisputably great shooter and excellent goal-scorer. His underlying numbers, though how he gets into the zone are up for question. You acquire a guy like Neal because he's going to finish off the work of your other players. The thing is, you have to be curious just to how much the two generational talents in Pittsburgh were fu sing with his numbers. In the last three years, Neal hasplayed 84 percent, 74 percent, and 73 percent(respectively) of his EVTOI with one of Malkin or Crosby. Which is something you'd expect, obviously. But neither Malkin nor Crosby are hanging in Nashville. We'll see where he trends in 2014-2015. Jaxson Hayes Jersey
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